Summary

In order to decrease the deleterious impacts of climate change on vulnerable communities, it is essential to well quantify this phenomenon to adopt the appropriate strategies. A lot of adaptation plans to climate change rely on matrices to establish vulnerability, but those are succinct and lack precision. This assessment can be optimized with an approach that combines geographic information systems and a principal component analysis. The heat wave hazard and its consequences on public health has been chosen to study the equation V = S – AC, where V is the vulnerability, S the sensitivity and AC the adaptive capacity.

This essay has developed a vulnerability assessment based on 14 sensitivity indicators split into 4 components that are weighted. The results are grouped by the Jenks Natural Breaks method. The adaptive capacity is based on a general equation that combine sensitivity indicators and their impact on the community. This approach has been compared to the Atlas de la vulnérabilité, a project by Université Laval researchers. Their method relies on 13 indicators of sensitivity split in 4 components that are not weighted. The results are grouped by the quintile method. The adaptive capacity is based on 7 indicators split in 2 components.

Unfortunately, the lack of evidence-based data complicated the concept of a standard equation. Therefore, due to a lack of clear relationship between mortality, morbidity and various indicators of vulnerability, it is impossible to underline an optimal approach. It is recommended for most organizations that create adaptation plans to rely on the Atlas de la vulnérabilité, because it’s a turnkey solution with a solid scientific basis. For those who need a personalize assessment, an exhaustive approach is proposed. Finally, some food for thought is proposed to researchers to deepen the knowledge on vulnerability assessment that relies on expert opinion or studies with limited statistical power.

Notwithstanding those obstacles, it remains a priority that politicians and managers act quickly in regard to public health and climate change by adopting no-regret strategies. The absence of a non-equivocal scientific literature is not a pretext for inaction.